Katafin Week 9 — Nobody Knows

I was watching an analyst on CNBC pontificating about his hedged bets for the election and was awe-struck about how little confidence he inspired as he talked in circles about hedging downside risk with bank options or some equally inane strategy. The reality is, nobody knows and few are willing to admit that. The conventional wisdom seems to be that we will have a contested election so at least some of that is already priced into the market correct? What if we don’t and early Tuesday evening we have a clear winner? What if people don’t accept that and we have civil unrest? No one and no model can…